To put Brexit in context, Lovelock noted that the UK accounts for just 5.3 percent of global IT spend, compared to 32.4 percent for the US. In a July 12 webinar, Gartner's Lovelock posted a slide depicting the different phases of the Brexit process, which emphasises that it's likely to be a long-drawn-out affair: Note that IT Services and Software are growing the most, by 5.8 percent and 3.7 percent respectively Data Center Systems and Communications Services are relatively flat (2% and -1.4% respectively), while Devices are contracting significantly at -5.3 percent. Here's how Gartner's current forecast for 2016 breaks down: Retaining current non-UK staff and having less access to qualified new hires from abroad will impair UK IT Departments." Staffing may prove the biggest headache for UK CIOs, according to Gartner: "The long-term uncertainty in work status will make the UK less attractive to new foreign workers. "With the UK's exit, there will likely be an erosion in business confidence and price increases which will impact UK, Western Europe and worldwide IT spending," said Gartner research vice president John-David Lovelock in a statement. According to Gartner, the Brexit vote will quickly affect IT spending in the UK and Europe, with other changes taking longer to unfold. Gartner's Brexit-adjusted forecast put worldwide IT spending at $3.41 trillion for 2016 - the same level as 2015. Though there are a number of different scenarios that could play out, what is certain is that we are only at the very start of defining the UK's new relationship with the EU."
The unprecedented nature of the move to leave makes the true extent of the outcome an unknown. The UK is taking a big gamble on its future. It's free to registered ZDNet and TechRepublic members.Ĭanalys research analyst Claudio Stahnke outlined the wider context for this readjustment: "Trade disruption, political instability, recession, stagflation, talent pool reduction and the collapse of the EU are all potential outcomes that need consideration.
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You can download our full special report as a PDF in magazine format. Special Report: Tech budgets 2017: A CXO's guide "The outlook for 2017 could be even worse, with up to a 15 percent decline as IT budgets are set lower on the prediction of a tough year ahead and ongoing uncertainty," Ball added. Canalys now expects this to fall by up to 10 percent in 2016, based on the public sector and businesses cutting expenditure to reduce risk," said principal analyst Matthew Ball in a June 27 statement. "Canalys' IT spending forecast, based on the UK remaining in the EU, was in the range of US$90 billion to US$100 billion in the UK. The 23 June 'Brexit' vote caused a rapid readjustment of analysts' IT spending forecasts for 2016.
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Image: Claudio Ventrella, Getty Images/iStockphotoĪs IT budget time comes around again, businesses find themselves navigating uncertain political and economic waters: economic growth in China, a major driver of the world economy, remains sluggish the US Presidential election is finally heading into the home straight, with wildly different potential outcomes and Europe remains in a 'phoney war' phase following the UK's vote to leave the EU, with little sign of a coherent exit strategy even though Article 50 is now set to be triggered by the end of March 2017. White House: Brace for potential Russian cyberattacksĤ1 impressive questions to ask in a job interview